Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Przemek's avatar

You have to take into account the constantly falling number of children being born.

https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piramida_wieku#/media/Plik:Poland_Population_Pyramid.svg

Assuming new seminarians are in their early 20-s when they join, we have around 3/4 of the people of that age compared to 30-year olds, i.e. the ones who could join in 2012. Yes, the drop from 828 in 2012 to 280 in 2023 is much higher, but still, demography is important.

Another fact is the "John Paul II effect" where lots of new priests joined when John Paul II was in office. See https://stat.gov.pl/files/gfx/portalinformacyjny/pl/defaultaktualnosci/5515/12/1/2/rs_kosciol_katolicki_1991-2011.pdf (page 27 for a total number of priests, page 37 for total number of seminarians in 1972-2010).

Expand full comment