This is only going to get worse because it’s downstream of a demographic freefall. Universities, of course, blow unfathomable amounts of money on athletics programs and facilities. But tuition will only drop further because there are no kids in the US left to go earn 4-year degrees. We are below replacement birthrate, and elementary/midd…
This is only going to get worse because it’s downstream of a demographic freefall. Universities, of course, blow unfathomable amounts of money on athletics programs and facilities. But tuition will only drop further because there are no kids in the US left to go earn 4-year degrees. We are below replacement birthrate, and elementary/middle schools in dense population centers (cities!) are already seeing major downsizing trends in class sizes. Once that wave hits the unis, will decimate higher ed in the US. In 2005-2015, the peak of US undergraduate enrollment rates, almost every kid with a pulse was going to college. Now, the tide is pulling out hard and fast. There are not enough kids to send to college, and an even smaller amount of Catholic kids to go to college (US Catholics are at the same birthrate as the general public), and more and more kids (especially Catholic) don’t want to take on debt to earn completely worthless degrees that offer no opportunities.
Long-term, this is not a money issue. It won’t be fixed by balancing a budget and cutting bloat. It’s a demographic crisis that is totally outside a board’s control, and inescapable. Most Catholic colleges will close (maybe even CUA) and most Catholic schools K-12 will close too.
I’m telling you, this is something you can’t escape or avoid. Bishops: start closing your schools strategically now, or risk another financial crisis. My parish went $2M in debt just because we kept our K-8 school open 2 years longer than we should have.
Depending on the area, I am somewhat more optimistic about K-8 schools, just because of the horrendous job the public schools are doing. But there are challenges everywhere.
The enrollment cliff is real, and not new or unexpected, but it's also geographical. Here in TX we have a very bright future demographically, but I would be concerned if I lived somewhere like CA or NY.
This is only going to get worse because it’s downstream of a demographic freefall. Universities, of course, blow unfathomable amounts of money on athletics programs and facilities. But tuition will only drop further because there are no kids in the US left to go earn 4-year degrees. We are below replacement birthrate, and elementary/middle schools in dense population centers (cities!) are already seeing major downsizing trends in class sizes. Once that wave hits the unis, will decimate higher ed in the US. In 2005-2015, the peak of US undergraduate enrollment rates, almost every kid with a pulse was going to college. Now, the tide is pulling out hard and fast. There are not enough kids to send to college, and an even smaller amount of Catholic kids to go to college (US Catholics are at the same birthrate as the general public), and more and more kids (especially Catholic) don’t want to take on debt to earn completely worthless degrees that offer no opportunities.
Long-term, this is not a money issue. It won’t be fixed by balancing a budget and cutting bloat. It’s a demographic crisis that is totally outside a board’s control, and inescapable. Most Catholic colleges will close (maybe even CUA) and most Catholic schools K-12 will close too.
I’m telling you, this is something you can’t escape or avoid. Bishops: start closing your schools strategically now, or risk another financial crisis. My parish went $2M in debt just because we kept our K-8 school open 2 years longer than we should have.
Depending on the area, I am somewhat more optimistic about K-8 schools, just because of the horrendous job the public schools are doing. But there are challenges everywhere.
Meanwhile my parish K-8 school is expanding because of a huge influx of kids. They all must have moved from your area to here.
The enrollment cliff is real, and not new or unexpected, but it's also geographical. Here in TX we have a very bright future demographically, but I would be concerned if I lived somewhere like CA or NY.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-colleges-really-facing-an-enrollment-cliff/